MoneyGeek Analysis:

Winter Is Coming: Can Homeowners Withstand Another Polar Vortex This Year?

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By Lucia Caldera
Edited by Erika Hearthway

Updated: October 18, 2024

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It’s that time of year again. The days get shorter, nights get longer, and the air gets chilly. For homeowners, this means it’s time to prep your property for the winter. From strong winds that loosen your shingles to frozen pipes that burst, the cold season can wreak havoc on your property — especially if you live in one of the states with the highest winter weather risk.

To find the states with the most expected winter weather risk this season, MoneyGeek analyzed expected property damage from winter weather overall and per capita using FEMA’s National Risk Index. We also broke down the percentage of expected damage from ice storms, cold waves and winter weather to help property owners identify the best homeowners insurance policy for their needs.

Key Findings

 

MoneyGeek’s analysis reveals which states are at the highest risk of losses from winter damage and offers insights and expert advice on what homeowners can do to protect their property.

Worst States for Winter Damage - facts.png
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This year, winter weather is expected to cause $436 million in property damage across the United States.

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North Dakota has the highest expected property damage costs per capita, with forecasted losses of $23 per person.

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Arizona and Nevada have the lowest expected losses per capita. On average, residents of these states will have zero costs related to winter weather damage during winter 2022–2023.

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Oklahoma has the highest total expected property damage costs, with expected losses of $53.8 million. Arkansas and Missouri have the second and third highest expected losses, respectively.

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Maine homeowners are accustomed to snow storms, but ice storms pose a unique threat: 100% of expected losses in the state are predicted to be from ice storms, totaling around $9.5 million in damages.

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After being severely affected by the polar vortex of 2021, Texas ranks number six among states with the most expected winter property damage. With 13,835 winter events forecasted for this year, the state anticipates $22.6 million in losses.

States Expected to Have Highest Costs From Winter Weather Damage (2022–2024)

"Worst States for Winter Weather" Badge

Using data from FEMA’s National Risk Index, MoneyGeek developed predictions for winter weather-related property damage this year. We then identified which states are expected to have the highest property damage costs per capita this winter.

While North Dakotans will each pay about $23 to cover winter storm damages in winter 2022–2023, the cost for Arkansas and Oklahoma residents will be approximately $14 per person. However, it’s important to note that Oklahoma’s total expected property damage cost is over $53.8 million and Arkansas’ is north of $41.9 million, while North Dakota’s is about $15.5 million. Therefore, the difference in the per capita average also reflects population size.

According to MoneyGeek’s study, Nebraska and South Dakota will be the fourth and fifth most expensive states in terms of per capita winter storm damage. Homeowners here will pay just under $9 per person to cover seasonal repairs.

Below, you can find a description of winter weather conditions for the top five states on this list to offer readers a better understanding of possible winter storm damage and seasonal risks, followed by a list of the 10 states with the most expected winter storm damage this season.

5 Worst States for Winter Weather Damage

  1. 1

    North Dakota

    Winter weather in North Dakota usually lasts from November through March and can be accompanied by strong winds that create blizzard conditions. Temperatures fall below 0 degrees Fahrenheit for 40 to 70 days on average, increasing risks to the home, including freezing and bursting water pipes.

  2. 2

    Arkansas

    According to the official Arkansas website, November marks the start of winter in this state, with light frost conditions and colder weather beginning toward the end of the month. By January, winter conditions become harsher, with average minimum temperatures of 28.8 degrees Fahrenheit and an average snowfall of 2.3 inches. By March, the weather is often milder, but residents often see at least one final snowfall this month.

  3. 3

    Oklahoma

    The Oklahoma Climatological Survey describes the state's winters as shorter and less severe than those of neighboring states. While extreme cold is infrequent, snowfall can range from less than two inches in some parts of the state to nearly 30 inches in others. Temperatures drop below 32 degrees Fahrenheit for 60 to 140 days in different parts of the state.

  4. 4

    Nebraska

    The National Weather Service indicates that the average winter season extends from November to March in eastern Nebraska and from October to April in western parts of the state. Snow and strong winds create the riskiest conditions, with dangerous wind chills and the possibility of blizzards. Other seasonal risks include power outages, tree damage and downed power lines.

  5. 5

    South Dakota

    Located toward the north of the country in the Great Plains area, South Dakota is exposed to cold arctic winds and low temperatures. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration indicates that blizzards and snowstorms can lead to the death of livestock during the winter months. This affects South Dakota’s agricultural economy while also causing devastating floods once the snow starts to melt.

Top 15 Worst States for Winter Weather Damage


  • 15. North Carolina
    North Carolina
    • $2.48Total Expected Property Damage Costs per Capita
    • $23.6 millionTotal Expected Property Damage Costs
  • 14. Iowa
    Iowa
    • $2.49Total Expected Property Damage Costs per Capita
    • $7.6 millionTotal Expected Property Damage Costs
  • 13. Ohio
    Ohio
    • $2.50Total Expected Property Damage Costs per Capita
    • $28.8 millionTotal Expected Property Damage Costs
  • 12. Tennessee
    Tennessee
    • $2.61Total Expected Property Damage Costs per Capita
    • $16.6 millionTotal Expected Property Damage Costs
  • 11. New Hampshire
    New Hampshire
    • $3.25Total Expected Property Damage Costs per Capita
    • $4.4 millionTotal Expected Property Damage Costs
  • 10. Kentucky
    Kentucky
    • $3.27Total Expected Property Damage Costs per Capita
    • $14.2 millionTotal Expected Property Damage Costs
  • 9. South Carolina
    South Carolina
    • $3.33Total Expected Property Damage Costs per Capita
    • $15.4 millionTotal Expected Property Damage Costs
  • 8. Kansas
    Kansas
    • $5Total Expected Property Damage Costs per Capita
    • $15.2 millionTotal Expected Property Damage Costs
  • 7. Missouri
    Missouri
    • $6Total Expected Property Damage Costs per Capita
    • $34.9 millionTotal Expected Property Damage Costs
  • 6. Maine
    Maine
    • $7Total Expected Property Damage Costs per Capita
    • $9.6 millionTotal Expected Property Damage Costs
  • 5. South Dakota
    South Dakota
    • $8Total Expected Property Damage Costs per Capita
    • $6.6 millionTotal Expected Property Damage Costs
  • 4. Nebraska
    Nebraska
    • $9Total Expected Property Damage Costs per Capita
    • $16.2 millionTotal Expected Property Damage Costs
  • 3. Oklahoma
    Oklahoma
    • $14.33Total Expected Property Damage Costs per Capita
    • $53.8 millionTotal Expected Property Damage Costs
  • 2. Arkansas
    Arkansas
    • $14.36Total Expected Property Damage Costs per Capita
    • $41.9 millionTotal Expected Property Damage Costs
  • 1. North Dakota
    North Dakota
    • $23Total Expected Property Damage Costs per Capita
    • $15.5 millionTotal Expected Property Damage Costs

How to Prepare Your Home for Winter Weather

Preparing your home for winter weather can keep you safe in case of a storm and save you thousands of dollars, too. Considering how high winter weather insured losses were in 2021 compared to previous years, it’s more important now than ever to buy a quality home insurance policy, as well as take steps to protect your property.

To prepare the inside and outside of your home for winter weather, Consumer Reports recommends:

  • Protecting your indoor pipes
  • Insulating your attic
  • Servicing your heating equipment
  • Installing glass storm windows
  • Hiring a licensed roofing contractor to inspect and repair your roof
  • Cleaning your gutters
  • Repairing your outdoor flooring
  • Removing tree limbs
  • Preparing outdoor water sources
  • Marking pathways before heavy snowfall

Damages related to the list above reflect many of the top winter home insurance claims. After the 2021 polar vortex became the most costly weather disaster in the history of Texas, it prompted many homeowners — not just in Texas but across the country — to question how much insurance coverage they might need to prepare for this winter season.

Knowing your local weather prediction for this year can help you identify how much home insurance coverage you need to protect your property; looking for cheap homeowners insurance in your area that meets these coverage needs is crucial to financially securing your home in the event of winter damage.

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MONEYGEEK EXPERT TIP

Before the season begins, take some time to review your homeowners insurance policy for these four types of coverage:

  • Dwelling
  • Personal property
  • Living expense
  • Liability

In some cases, you may also want to consider secondary coverage to cover the cost of repairing structures beyond your dwelling (such as fences or a detached garage), as well as medical payments for visitors who may become injured while at your home.

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Methodology

We analyzed FEMA’s National Risk Index data to determine expected annualized property damage losses from winter weather events across the country. Our analysis included property losses from snowstorms, sleet, freezing rain, ice storms and cold waves. We analyzed total property damage and ranked states by per capita losses to determine which states are the most burdened by property damage due to winter storms.

If you have any questions about our findings or methodology, please reach out to Melody Kasulis via email at melody@moneygeek.com.

Full Data Set

The data points presented are defined as follows:

  • Total Expected Annual Winter Property Damage Losses: Total property losses from snowstorms, sleet, freezing rain, ice storms and cold waves.
  • Total Winter Expected Property Losses per Capita: Total losses divided by the population of each state.
  • % of Property Damage From Ice Storms: Percent of total property losses attributed to ice storms. Here, ice storms are defined as instances of freezing rain with significant ice accumulation.
  • % of Property Damage From Cold Waves: Percent of total property losses attributed to cold waves. Here, cold waves are defined as instances of rapid drops in temperatures within 24 hours to extremely low temperatures for an extended period of time.
  • % of Property Damage From Winter Weather: Percent of total property losses attributed to winter weather. Here, winter weather is defined as snow, sleet or freezing rain.
Rank
State
Total Winter Expected Property Losses per Capita
Total Expected Annual Winter Property Damage Losses
% of Property Damage from Ice Storms
% of Property Damage from Cold Waves
% of Property Damage from Winter Weather

1

North Dakota

$23.01

$15,474,855

47%

0%

53%

2

Arkansas

$14.36

$41,873,707

77%

0%

23%

3

Oklahoma

$14.33

$53,766,749

90%

0%

10%

4

Nebraska

$8.85

$16,168,017

81%

0%

19%

5

South Dakota

$8.15

$6,635,695

25%

0%

74%

6

Maine

$7.19

$9,557,159

100%

0%

0%

7

Missouri

$5.83

$34,940,494

64%

0%

36%

8

Kansas

$5.34

$15,233,676

50%

0%

50%

9

South Carolina

$3.33

$15,399,424

99%

0%

1%

10

Kentucky

$3.27

$14,186,279

87%

0%

12%

11

New Hampshire

$3.25

$4,272,942

95%

0%

5%

12

Tennessee

$2.61

$16,570,122

93%

0%

7%

13

Ohio

$2.50

$28,805,600

55%

1%

44%

14

Iowa

$2.49

$7,572,416

40%

0%

60%

15

North Carolina

$2.48

$23,642,319

93%

0%

7%

16

Minnesota

$2.00

$10,590,780

32%

1%

67%

17

Vermont

$1.96

$1,225,482

65%

0%

34%

18

Rhode Island

$1.65

$1,733,056

99%

0%

0%

19

Michigan

$1.60

$15,817,883

88%

0%

11%

20

West Virginia

$1.32

$2,441,705

73%

0%

26%

21

Mississippi

$1.01

$3,003,389

96%

0%

4%

22

Georgia

$0.97

$9,398,967

88%

0%

12%

23

New Mexico

$0.92

$1,894,611

42%

0%

58%

24

Texas

$0.90

$22,639,666

66%

0%

34%

25

Louisiana

$0.86

$3,911,607

99%

0%

1%

26

Connecticut

$0.84

$2,990,960

96%

0%

4%

27

New York

$0.81

$15,702,224

89%

0%

11%

28

Massachusetts

$0.79

$5,158,743

98%

0%

2%

29

Illinois

$0.74

$9,475,896

70%

0%

29%

30

Indiana

$0.73

$4,728,269

48%

2%

50%

31

Delaware

$0.67

$600,818

31%

0%

69%

32

Montana

$0.64

$636,778

52%

6%

42%

33

Utah

$0.51

$1,422,805

55%

0%

45%

34

Virginia

$0.48

$3,828,258

88%

0%

12%

35

Wyoming

$0.38

$213,475

30%

7%

64%

36

Colorado

$0.37

$1,864,393

47%

1%

52%

37

Pennsylvania

$0.32

$4,110,538

29%

1%

70%

38

Wisconsin

$0.29

$1,673,761

72%

2%

26%

39

New Jersey

$0.28

$2,498,822

21%

0%

79%

40

Alabama

$0.25

$1,196,251

85%

1%

15%

41

Maryland

$0.24

$1,386,805

75%

0%

25%

42

Idaho

$0.10

$149,761

38%

36%

25%

43

Washington

$0.07

$481,334

84%

4%

12%

44

Oregon

$0.05

$196,806

66%

1%

33%

45

Florida

$0.02

$412,709

3%

73%

24%

46

Alaska

$0.02

$13,266

27%

8%

65%

47

Hawaii

$0.01

$13,223

100%

0%

0%

48

California

$0.01

$253,338

90%

0%

10%

49

Washington D.C.

$0.01

$3,193

57%

18%

25%

50

Nevada

$0.00

$9,228

6%

30%

64%

51

Arizona

$0.00

$12,647

15%

29%

55%

About Lucia Caldera

Lucia Caldera headshot

Lucia Caldera, the founder of Corporate Media Lab, has 10 years of experience in financial planning, management and advising. She writes finance content for MoneyGeek, using her personal finance background to help readers achieve financial wellness.

Lucia holds a master’s degree in international political economy and development from Fordham University and a bachelor’s degree in economics from Clark University. Her work reflects her passion for using financial education to reduce the wealth gap for women and minorities.

Read Full Bio »
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