Where in the US Will Heating Your Home Cost More This Winter?

Last winter, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected a 21% decrease in heating expenditures via natural gas. However, with factors such as anticipated colder temperatures across the country and lower retail costs for natural gas, heating costs for 2024 to 2025 are expected to be the same or slightly less than the previous year.

To explore how natural gas prices could affect U.S. households this winter, MoneyGeek analyzed data from the EIA to find which states are expected to see the largest changes in heating prices this year. We also determined which regions are expected to see the most significant bill changes since last winter.

Using household data from the recently-released EIA Residential Energy Consumption Survey, natural gas consumption figures and average residential prices, MoneyGeek forecasted average heating bills across the U.S. and ranked the states with the highest expenses in expected heating bills for winter 2024–2025.

Michigan residents are expected to have the largest increase in heating bills of any state this winter, at an estimated difference of $13 per month. Though the cost of heating will be highest in the Northeast, all of the 10 states with the highest increases compared to last winter are located in the Midwest.

Overall, natural gas customers across the country will see similar or slightly cheaper heating costs this winter; however, price changes won't impact every region of the United States equally. Below, MoneyGeek ranked the areas with the highest expected percentage changes in heating costs this winter, along with the top three most expensive states for heating in each region.

With an expected increase of 11%, the Midwest will experience the highest average rise in heating costs this winter. When looking at average monthly heating bills per state in this region, the most expensive are Michigan ($135), Missouri ($132) and Ohio ($113). Additionally, each of these states also has the largest increases in costs compared to last winter (over $10 monthly).

Trailing behind as the region with the second-highest rise in heating costs is the Northeast, where residents can expect a price increase of 1% in heating costs this season. How much is the heating bill per month here? In the most expensive state, Rhode Island, residents can expect to pay $189 per month. Following behind are customers in Connecticut, who will likely pay $132; those in Massachusetts are expected to pay $129 per month. In these states, residents will see the smallest change in cost compared to last winter.

Keeping your home warm will be 4% less expensive in the South this year. The priciest states for heating in this region are Georgia ($113), Delaware ($106) and Tennessee ($101). However, customers in these states will see some minor savings on average this winter compared to last, paying roughly $3 less per month.

Residents in the West will pay 6% less in winter 2024 than in 2023, the biggest decrease compared to other regions. The highest heating costs can be found in Alaska ($154), Utah ($133) and Washington ($119). However, when comparing average heating expenses between last winter and this upcoming wintertime, customers in this region are projected to save over $8 per month on their winter heating bills this year.

While alternative heating methods — such as space heaters and fireplaces, are available — the National Fire Protection Association’s (NFPA) 2022 Home Heating Fires Report warns against the increased dangers and highlights that heating equipment is the leading cause of fires in U.S. homes.

Before using alternative heating methods, consider getting help with your heating bill or exploring other ways to save on your heating costs. Some households may qualify for the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP), which can help cover some heating costs. Taking steps to winterize your home can also help save on heating costs while minimizing risks.

Exploring these avenues can be especially advantageous when considering that insurance coverage varies when it comes to alternative heating methods. While turning on a space heater or lighting a fire in your fireplace may help you save money on your monthly heating bill, many homeowners may find out too late they are not fully covered in the event of a house fire caused by these sources. Therefore, it’s essential to understand which of the top winter home insurance claims your policy covers. Before using alternative heating methods, learn about the risks and find an affordable renters insurance plan or buy a quality home insurance policy to protect your property in the event of an accident.

MoneyGeek analyzed data from the EIA to estimate how much more natural gas heating will cost around the country this winter (2024–2025) than it did last (2023–2024).

To determine 2023 natural gas heating bills per household, we used gas consumption data and retail prices for residential customers from November 2023.

Our data team utilized the EIA’s Winter Fuels Outlook to determine how consumption and prices will change for winter 2024–2025.

MoneyGeek used household data from the 2020 EIA Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) — the latest release — to estimate the number of households using natural gas. We used this figure to help estimate natural gas expenditures per household in each state for 2024–2025.

Limitations: Regional projections for consumption and prices from the EIA were used to generate 2024–2025 figures rather than projections for each state. This methodology reflects the percentage change figures for states in each of those regions. Additionally, November 2023 gas consumption and pricing data is unavailable for Maine and Tennessee, so we used December 2023 and November 2022 data, respectively, to fill the gap.

The data points presented are defined as follows:

• Rank: Ranked in order of largest to smallest projected Change in Monthly Cost.
• Change in Monthly Cost: The difference between the monthly household natural gas bill in winter 2024–2025 and winter 2023–2024.
• Monthly Natural Gas Bill per Household (2024–2025): Uses EIA Winter Fuels Outlook projections by region — considering increased consumption and prices — to estimate natural gas heating costs per household per month.
• Monthly Natural Gas Bill per Household (2023–2024): Calculated by multiplying total residential consumption (McF) by residential retail prices from November 2022, divided by the total number of households using natural gas for heating purposes.